![]() The impacts of long-term climate trends have received considerable attention through the examination of the warming signal in both historical observations and future climate projections 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Long-term climate trends (e.g., global warming) and short-term extreme events (e.g., heatwaves) have global impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning, and human well-being 1, 2, 3. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. ![]() Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 5188 ( 2023) Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable
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